Dead balls: England have no cutting edge in attack
England’s attack has not gotten going at the Euros. Gareth Southgate has been accused of lacking a plan. At the very least, whether it be because of a lack of direction, or individuals being overwhelmed, England often look like a collection of individual attackers trying to solve everything on their own. But what if we have been asking the wrong questions about England?
To start, are England already good in ways that are truly meaningful for tournament success? In some ways they already are. They have one of the best defences at the Euros. England have only surrendered 1.1 expected goals over the group stage. A strong defence is something that has been integral for tournament winners while Gareth Southgate has overseen England. Defensive solidity has driven recent winners in Italy at the last Euros, Argentina at the 2022 World Cup and France at the 2018 World Cup. Argentina only gave up 0.7 expected goals, France only 1.6 expected goals, and Italy 1.3 expected goals, each throughout the group phases of their respective tournaments. England have not faced stiff tests in strong attacks, but they have defended well against the teams they have faced.
England already have a defence that is on par with these teams and before the tournament there were reasonable expectations England would have the attacking talent necessary to be strong going forward as well. But why hasn’t the attack come to fruition?
Many of the discussions about England’s attacking struggles centre on tactical issues. With Phil Foden struggling to find the form he has shown at Manchester City while in an England shirt, there must be tactical ways to get the best out of Foden and jumpstart the attack. Foden’s preference to cut into the middle with the ball or float into central positions without the ball points to a clear tactical problem with the right-footed Kieran Trippier playing at left-back. The team lacks width on the left side.
An explanation for England’s struggles in attack that I think has gone under the radar is the absence of any set piece threat. What if England’s attacks have never actually been that great, no matter the talent this generation of English attackers have shown. What if Southgate’s attacks have always been a bit conservative to ensure a strong defence and it has been boosted with goals from set pieces.
Set pieces have been shown to be an effective source of goals in tournament play. Especially when national teams often lack the time to instill the attacking patterns that are necessary to go beyond individual quality. Set pieces require less time to train, allowing national teams to instill useful routines over limited training time. They have been exploited by Danish football for easy goals in the face of talent deficits in the past and are becoming an increasingly popular area to exploit, with many clubs employing specialist coaches devoted to set pieces as well.
For of England’s historic struggles with the ultimate dead ball, the penalty kick, England under Southgate have generally made good use of set pieces. In the 2018 World Cup they produced 3.51 shots per 90 minutes from set pieces and 0.39 goals per 90. At the last European championships England produced 2.34 shots per 90 from dead balls and 0.26 goals per 90. Finally at the 2022 World Cup England produced 2.6 shots per 90 from corners and free kicks and 0.2 goals per 90. However, at this year’s Euros England have produced only 1.67 shots per 90 from set pieces and are yet to score a set piece goal. England have gone from producing like a strong striker from set pieces, over three shots per 90, to now producing under two shots a game from set pieces. They have gone from essentially having another Harry Kane in their set piece production to Chris Wood. That is a major drop off in attacking production for England!
But how can we explain this? The absence of Harry Maguire, for all his defensive faults he is a target on attacking set pieces, is one factor. Marc Guehi has been a major part of England’s strong defensive performances, but he lacks an aerial presence in winning headers, ranking in the tenth percentile according to fbref for percentage of aerial duels won. Much has been made of the lack of overlapping runs from Kieran Trippier, and this is to be expected from a right-footed player playing on the left. However, Trippier’s lack of production delivering set pieces is a second major factor in explaining England’s poor set piece performance.
Trippier has always led the way for England in terms of creating shots from set pieces. However, he appears to have fallen off in that regard. Trippier has gone from producing a staggering 20 shots from dead balls in the 2018 World Cup, or 3.13 shots per 90, to 1.03 shots per 90 on set pieces so far in 2024. Whether it be through play design or replacing Trippier, England’s set pieces may hold a key to getting their attack going. Trippier is a part of England’s strong defence, but he may not offer much in attack with his lack of overlapping runs and with the drop off in his dead ball production. Set pieces are also subject to great degrees of variance, so things may work out for England by chance alone. However, yet another aspect of England’s attack has been faltering under the radar as well.
All stats were retrieved from fbref
