Euro 2020 Predictions: Home field advantage could be decisive after a year without fans
Noah Eliot
An area that is perhaps being overlooked when attempting to predict how the group stages will shake out is that many teams will be playing in the home nation and even in front of their fans. This may not be the most important factor as there is no guarantee of high capacity crowds due to the ongoing pandemic and we have seen the evaporation of home field advantage in leagues across Europe this past year without fans. However when I think about who may come out of the group stage I think it may be decisive in a tournament where many teams are full of players who played a lot of minutes in jam packed domestic seasons and the matches may be tense slogs where fans may have an impact. Here is how I think it will shake out, with a preview of how home field advantage may impact the knockouts.
Group A
1. Italy
2. Switzerland
3. Turkey
4. Wales
Italy play all of their games in Rome, where they have not lost in often, and I think that should solidify them as the clear favourites in their group. The second and third places will likely come down to the game between Turkey and Switzerland on matchday three of the group, but I think that the fact the Swiss play Wales and then Italy puts them in a better place to start off the tournament strongly and carry some positive momentum into their games against Italy, as opposed to Turkey who start with Italy. Turkey are a strong side who could hang with Italy based on the strength of their strongest eleven, but I think Italy’s home field advantage could mean Turkey start having to chase down Switzerland from the start on the wrong foot. I think the state that Wales is as a squad with few peak ages players that are the core of their team means that whoever comes third in this group is good standing to be one of the four third place finishers to advance to the knockout stages.
Group B
1. Denmark
2. Belgium
3. Russia
4. Finland
Despite Belgium having obvious quality, they have to travel away games at Denmark and Russia, their two toughest opposition, and their key players other than Romelu Lukaku have not had good seasons or are a doubt for the early games of this tournament. I believe in their quality to advance, btu I think they may struggle to win both against the Danes and Russians. This may open things up for Denmark to build on their potential for a strong start against Finland and top the group with all their games in Copenhagen. Russia also plays two of their games at home, with their only road game being their match with Denmark in Copenhagen, which could decide the group if Belgium stumble, puts them in a good position to advance at the very least as one of the third place finishers. Unfortunately for Finland they face three games against strong opposition who will have to be on the top of their game against them as they will need to beat them to build their case to advance.
Group C
1. Netherlands
2. Austria
3. Ukraine
4. North Macedonia
The Netherlands play all of their group stage games in Amsterdam, which gives me hope for them to advance at the top of their group, despite their management and injury issues that may mean all of their opponents have a very plausible path to victory against them in this sneaky group of depth. The remaining three teams will receive no home field advantage as the other host for this group is Bucharest, Romania. This may be decisive in the race for a strong third place finish in this highly competitive group. To me that means only two teams will come out of this group, unfortunately for Ukraine in all likelihood, as Austria have a more complete squad with strong Bundesliga talents. I think the underrated quality that North Macedonia possesses may also contribute to relatively points totals across this group.
Group D
1. England
2. Croatia
3. Scotland
4. Czech Republic
England not only have one of its strongest squads in recent memory with fairly strong quality across the position groups, but they also get to stay home for the entire group stage. Scotland also get to play two crucial games against the Czech Republic and Croatia in Glasgow that may be decisive in how the teams may finish in this group. Ultimately, I think that means Scotland does well enough against the Czechs to put themselves in a position to snag one of the third-place finishes. Beyond that I think that Croatia will give England enough trouble to secure the second-place and the Czechs face a tough task playing both the English and the Scots away, where Scotland will need a strong performance to advance.
Group E
1. Spain
2. Poland
3. Sweden
4. Slovakia
Spain may be weaker than in recent terms as they are transitioning to a promising young generation, but the fact they are playing all three of their group stage games in Bilbao should help them secure a first place finish in the group despite COVID concerns in the squad as the tournament is set to begin. The other host for this group is Dublin and given that I think that despite Sweden’s multiple young talents I do not think that they can overcome Poland’s Robert Lewandowski for second place. Also the strength of the three top teams in the group of death, with the Germans playing in Munich, along with Scotland and Russia playing games at home, means I do not think Sweden will be able to grab one of the third place qualifications. Slovakia will be in tough to play the role of spoiler as one of the weaker teams I ma predicting to finish fourth.
Group F
1. Portugal
2. France
3. Germany
4. Hungary
The loss of Dominik Szoboszlai for Hungary makes it hard for me to envision them ratcheting up the chaos in the group of death without their star man, despite them playing two of their games at home in Budapest. Their bad luck makes me fairly confident that the three historically strong teams in this group should be able to get out of the group in some way. I think that Germany playing all of their games in Munich is a boost for their chances of finishing as one of the strongest third place finishers. Finally, Portugal’s quality is close enough to matching that of France that I think France’s questionable 4–4–2 diamond in the deeper midfield positions in terms of fit may allow Portugal to edge them to finish top of the group.
Third Place Finishers => (A-Turkey, B-Russia, D-Scotland, F-Germany)
Round of 16
(This is where it gets confusing with the third place qualifiers, so I hope I did this correctly)
Italy v. Austria (London, UK) => Italy
Belgium v. Switzerland (Amsterdam, The Netherlands) => Belgium
Croatia v. Poland (Copenhagen, Denmark) => Croatia
England v. France (Dublin, Republic of Ireland) => England
Netherlands v. Scotland (Bilbao, Spain) => Netherlands
Denmark v. Germany (Budapest, Hungary) =>Germany
Spain v. Turkey (Glasgow, Scotland) => Turkey
Portugal v. Russia (Bucharest, Romania) => Portugal
Quarterfinals
Germany v. Italy (Munich, Germany) => Italy
Portugal v. Croatia (St. Petersburg, Russia) => Portugal
Netherlands v. Belgium (Baku Azerbaijan) => Belgium
England v. Turkey (Rome, Italy) => England
Semi Finals
Italy v. Portugal (London, UK) => Portugal
Belgium v. England (London, UK) => England
Finals
England v. Portugal (London, UK) => England
There was not a ton of home field advantage to be found in the knockout stages. The tournament appears to have been designed for this in the round of 16. However in the scenario of my prediction, Germany did play their quarterfinal against Italy in Munich, which could have an impact. Finally, if England are able to reach the semi-finals and beyond they would be playing at home in London. Whether that would be an advantage given the hysteria that would entail is perhaps open ended, but I do think it could be a boost, which contributed to my conclusion that they would win the tournament over Portugal. I am going to check back in at the end of the group stages with some thoughts, takeaways and predictions, so enjoy the tournament and see you then.
