Premier League Preview 2021–22: The Stars of Tomorrow Today
Noah Eliot
The 2020–21 English Premier League (EPL) season was draining for everyone involved, as the schedule was compressed due to the previous season’s pause and international tournaments rescheduled to summer 2021. An interesting development emerged, in part because of fatigue and diminished finances due to the pandemic, in the young players who burst onto the scene. This was exemplified by a player like Emile Smith-Rowe who stepped into a creative void that Arsenal were unable to fill in the transfer market. In attempting to preview the 2021–22 season I decided to look at the crop of young players that emerged during the 2020–21 EPL season. I focussed on their assist/goal production, creative. shot, pass, ball progresion and pressures data from Football Reference (FBRef) for u20 attackers who played over 450 minutes during the 2020–21 EPL season. I undertook this in order to observe how the standout performers in terms of end product (expected goals and assists) arrived at those totals and who could take a step forward based on strong underlying performances. A final note on my methodology. I chose u20 as an age cut-off, as opposed to the u23 cut-off that the EPL young player of the season award uses, because most players in the age 21–23 range have emerged in previous seasons and players who perform even moderately well as teenagers in the EPL have a greater chance of going on to become future stars. So now back to the central question for this article, who were the top u20 attackers during the 2020–21 EPL season and who could emerge as this upcoming season’s new Premier League young stars?
End Product
To look at the statistical profile of the EPL’s future attacking stars I decided to begin with a comparison of their combined non-penalty expected goals and assists per90 from the 11 u20 attackers whole completed at least 5 90s on FBRef or over 450 minutes, as well as their separated expected assists per90 and non-penalty expected goals per90. This way we can see who performed well in each individual area, assists and goal contributions, as well as who put together strong overall contributions as an attacker. The clear top performer on this series of bar charts is Gabriel Martinelli. This comes with a large caveat that he only appeared in 14 matches, totalling 589 minutes for Arsenal after being injured until around January 2021. His direct style of play on the ball contributed to a strong expected assists and goals contributions, which is promising. However, players such as Phil Foden, Pedro Neto, Mason Greenwood and Bukayo Saka put up strong performances in across over 1,500 EPL minutes. To me those are the most prominent group of young attackers that emerged during the the 2020–21 season.
Calum Hudson-Odoi also stood out, as he put up very strong creative measures in terms of expected assists but was severely lacking in terms of personal goal contributions. This could be partially explained by his usage as an attacking wing-back under Thomas Tuchel in the latter part of the season, where he was expected to provide width in attack. It is possible that he is going through the common developmental stage of young wide attackers in that he struggles to produce the end to moves in terms goals, at least as an out and out winger playing along the touchline. It will be interesting to see if he is used other roles that may enable him to up his personal goal contributions to add to his impressive expected assist numbers. But now it is time to look at these players on a more granular level to see how these players arrived at these numbers and who stood out in other areas that did not necessarily translate into goal production or creation? For that we will turn to the even data across other facets that make up these players’ games.
Creation
In terms of shot creating actions (SCA/90)and goal creating actions per90 (GCA/90) Callum Hudson-Odoi again stands out despite his lower minutes total. He takes up a prominent place next to Phil Foden in the top left corner of the graph. Here Martinelli falls back to the pack, indicating he may have created high quality chances without high quantities of shot and goal creating actions. Two players who do show up better in terms of chance creation, despite playing slightly lower minutes with more middling end product compared to their u20 peers are Emile Smith-Rowe and Ferran Torres. Based on these measures those two players are ones to look out for if they have more prominent roles at their clubs in 2021–22. Finally, Neto and Saka backed up their strong expected goal/assist production with strong underlying performances here. Especially Pedro Neto who was a clear shot creating hub on a Wolverhampton team that looked to counterattack and also had to weather the unfortunate injury to striker Raul Jimenez.
Shooting
When it comes to shooting data, it is not surprising that the players who played predominantly as strikers or wide forwards stand out. Here we are not just looking at who was able to take a bunch of shots per90, but also the value of their average shot (npxG/sht). Names such as Mason Greenwood and Martinelli make up a substantial component of their value in being able to take a bunch of shots with a strong level of quality per shot. Fabio Silva of Wolves and Aaron Connolly from Brighton are more under the radar names who compare favourably to the higher profile striker prospects I just mentioned. I am interested in what Silva has to offer in the future because he was a highly rated prospect at Porto who was likely brought to the Premier League too early and thrust into centre stage with Raul Jimenez injured. Intriguingly Ferran Torres also had a reasonably strong start to his time at Manchester City, and it is possible he will build upon that strong base performance this upcoming season of in further in the future. Finally, Saka and Foden place well here for predominantly more creative wide attackers, while Neto struggles to personally produce shots, indicating his impressive shot creation largely comes by creating shot opportunities for others.
Passing
Pedro Neto’s strengths show more clearly here, with his ability to create a lot of shot assists per90 (KP) and progressive passes per90 (Prog). He combines an ability to progress the ball up the pitch and then create shots for his teammates through his passing, which informs his strong attacking contributions. What is intriguing to me about his future is that his skill set makes me think he could become a scalable talent for higher level teams across Europe. His ability to create shots for others may allow him to support higher level attacking talent by taking some of the creative burden off of their plate and instead lay shot assists out for them. However, he may also be missing personal creation that would limit his elasticity alongside playmakers like himself. This is based on his production being based mostly on volume, which may mean he requires the ball too often to perform well in a more off the ball role. Hudson-Odoi also shows strongly here, as a surprisingly high usage playmaker in his limited EPL minutes for Chelsea last year. This tracks with the fact his attacking value came mostly as a playmaker out wide. Saka, Martinelli, Torres and Greenwood were also quite active passers with more moderate success. Greenwood was the best of the bunch of young attackers who are most likely to develop into central strikers. However, his strong performance compared to other prospective strikers may be in part due to his usage as a wide forward for the majority of the 2020–21 season at Manchester United. Finally, Phil Foden provides high level progressive passing and shot assists over many more minutes than the other young attackers shown here, and his well rounded standout performance last year bodes well for his future.
Ball Progression
In this section we are looking at the ability these young attackers showcased as on-the-ball dribblers, specifically their successful dribbles per90 (Succ.) and dribbles per90 into the opposition 18-yard box (CPA), relative to the amount of touches they make per 90. Hudson-Odoi’s role as an attacking winger/wing-back for Chelsea seems to have served him well here. In this role he was afforded the space to get on the ball in space and use his skillset by using his dribbling abilities in 1v1s to get into dangerous positions with the ball. The standout group of Foden, Neto, Martinelli, Greenwood and Saka again perform strongly here, with Ferran Torres also looking promising. Keep in mind that Foden and Neto combine their strong passing from the previous section with standout dribbling abilities, which gives them a well-rounded profile as final-third attackers. Bukayo Saka is also putting together a more moderate, but still well-rounded attacking profile. His ability to perform well across the board is promising overall and it is interesting to consider if there is an area, or areas, that he will continue to develop into more elite performances. The prominent progressive dribbling role he filled for England may portend to greater potential as a final third attacker who looks to bring the ball into attacks and create for others and himself.
Pressures
Finally, it is not too surprising that these young attackers cluster in the top-right corner of this chart, as the modern game is dominated by high pressing tactical systems. Even low-block defensive teams usually require their attackers to apply pressure closer to their own box. These young attackers also offered substantial energy to their clubs, as they were anxious try and establish their careers with a willingness to listen to the specifications of their managers. However, their vigour may have been taken advantage of by increasingly confident defenders on the ball, as many of these players were active pressers but also more likely to be dribbled past. Hudson-Odoi performs well here as active but also not horribly taken advantage of. This may be due to a warped comparison to his attacking peers here as he was used as a wing-back under Thomas Tuchel, which is nominally a defensive role. Compared to other wide defenders hem at not come off so well. It should also be noted that a strong statistical performer like Martinelli may have his data skewed as well, as he made a handful of his appearances as a late substitute whose energy was prioritized to pressure defenders while Arsenal were ahead and hoping to see out a match. Lastly, as modern creative midfielders, Foden and Emile Smith-Rowe offer a nice combination of activity and more moderate incidences of error when applying pressure to the opposition.
Conclusion
From an overall perspective there are some players I can see bursting forward in their development during the 2021–22 EPL season. Callum Hudson-Odoi is the most intriguing player from my analysis. He put up good creative production as a wide attacker for Chelsea in limited minutes under Thomas Tuchel. It will be interesting to see what he can do with more minutes and/or different roles at Chelsea, or elsewhere. Gabriel Martinelli holds similar allure given his strong statistical performance in limited minutes. How he will perform against tougher competition in a larger sample will tell us much more about the player he is becoming. I consider him an unanswered question with potential for stardom heading into the 2021–22 season.
Ferran Torres also holds the potential to become a high-volume attacker, but with Manchester City reportedly looking to further bolster their attack before the new season, his usage will be fascinating. It will be telling how Manchester City manage his career and if he is satisfied with their choices. A smart team would be wise to keep tabs on Torres if he were to get lost in the shuffle at City. Pedro Neto also comes off well through my analysis as a strong more creative attacker. Personally, he flew under the radar at Wolverhampton last year, and I will keep an eye on him to see if he continues to act as a creative hub for Wolves this season as that club evolves under new management. The next move in his career, if and when that happens, is sure to be interesting. Finally, the standout out group of English attackers in Saka, Foden, and Greenwood will be looking to build on the platform they established last season and seeing how far they can take their talents in the next few years will be fascinating. Mind you there has been no mention here of Jadon Sancho, who perhaps holds the greatest potential to be the next star in the EPL after his move to Manchester United from Borussia Dortmund. However it shakes out the 2021–22 season holds exciting potential across the division.
