Turning on the hot stove: Looking at ways the Blue Jays could rekindle the Cimber trade magic
By the end of June/early July last season the Blue Jays had made two trades designed to plug two holes on their roster: their bullpen and left-handed hitting options. The acquisitions of Trevor Richards and especially Adam Cimber helped to stabilize the bullpen, while Corey Dickerson provided about league average production at the plate as a left-handed hitter and played good defense in the outfield, provided he was not playing in centre field.
Oddly enough, the Blue Jays principal needs this season still largely centre on the bullpen and left-handed hitting again. Richards’ struggles and the below average, but about career average, play at the dish from Raimel Tapia likely make a similar trade to the Cimber/Dickerson deal a reasonable starting place for the Jays’ in-season tinkering. Another outfielder may be even more important considering the need to manage George Springer through the season in order to preserve his ability to be a force at the plate. A duo of Tapia, Bradley Zimmer and some Cavan Biggio sprinkles may not cut it.
Now, of the two deals there definitely seems to be a superior recipe. Trevor Richards was a solid middle reliever last season, but so far has proven unable to avoid issues with hard contact and walks in 2022. Not to mention, he along with Bowden Francis were acquired in exchange for Rowdy Tellez. In an alternate reality where Tellez could feasibly play the outfield he would solve some of the Jays’ issues from the left side of the plate. In our reality you can now find Rowdy Tellez Blue Jays gear in a local Winners for a few bucks.
While the Jays did a decent job of getting immediate help in the bullpen in 2021, even if Tellez seems to have found some of his 2020 form so far this season. However, a good starting place in 2022 would be some possible pitcher and lefty-hitter combinations from likely sellers that could fit the Blue Jays’ needs. Here are three potential deals that hope to rekindle some of tbat Cimber-Dickerson magic.
(One caveat, we do not 100% know the vaccination status of many of these players, so that is an important piece of information that Blue Jays management will have to navigate)
The Cimber-Dickerson Remix
The most similar option may be returning to a name the Blue Jays were rumoured to be interested in last season. Detroit’s Robbie Grossman plays left field and offers similar career production to someone like Corey Dickerson. He also showed greater performance in 2020 and 2021 despite struggling so far this year. He generally draws his walks and offers a good amount of power, while playing poor outfield defense. He is also a pending free-agent and does not seem to be a long-piece for Detroit.
As a potential trade partner, the Tigers also offer a collection of bullpen pieces that may interest the Blue Jays in Gregory Soto (hey a Soto), Alex Lange, Michael Fulmer and Joe Jimenez. Soto and Lange are under long-term team control that likely fits the Tigers’ timeline, but Fulmer (a weak contact specialist without overpowering stuff) and Jimenez (lots of Ks, but also lots of hard contact) are pending free-agents this year and next respectively. A package of Grossman and one of Fulmer or Jimenez may not move the needle enough to move on from Tapia (and the elevated financial costs tied to the Randall Grichuk trade). But it does closely resemble the Cimber-Dickerson deal and probably would not take a monumental prospect return, especially considering Grossman’s remaining salary. It also adds a solid lefty hitter and bullpen piece, if not especially strong pieces in either case.
Hello Mr. Happ
No not J.A. Happ, who recently announced his retirement, although Blue Jays J.A. Happ, a Pete Walker project before it was trendy, would certainly bolster the rotation. I am thinking about Ian Happ from the Cubs. The Cubs began their rebuild last season and with Happ becoming a free agent after next season, he stands to be available for the right price. Now that price may be significantly higher than those paid in the Cimber-Dickerson or Richards deals, but Happ is likely worth it. As a player, Happ would represent an everyday outfielder who is very good at drawing walks, making hard contact and plays good outfield defense field too.
The switch hitter has also significantly improved his ability to hit fastballs this year. Happ has gone from hitting .241 and whiffing on 26.2% of the fastballs he faced in 2021, to hitting .291 and cutting his whiff rate down to 20%. This is a good development if it sticks, and especially if the Blue Jays were to acquire him given lefty Cavan Biggio’s struggles hitting high velocity. Happ looks like a strong all-around player who would fit nicely in the Blue Jays lineup.
Happ may also represent a case of bringing forward some future outfield tinkering to this season that would also carry into next season. If you could add a lights out reliever in David Robertson (pending FA) along with Happ, this has the makings of a scaled up version of the Cimber-Dickerson deal. Any prospect package that does not involve Gabriel Moreno and Orelvis Martinez would be very palatable to me. Generally, I think fans often clutch their team’s prospects too tightly and neglect the significant downside risk in favour of the potential ceiling. There is a time for both, but prospects are for losers and the 2022 Blue Jays are not losers. This would be a pretty big deal, and thus may have to wait until closer to the deadline as the Cubs would want to drive up the return, but I would be willing to wait and give up more for Happ and a Cubs reliever (pending FA Mychal Givens is also intriguing) then someone like Andrew Benintendi. Speaking of Benintendi…
The BABIP Bear
Benintendi was a popular name in trade circles last season and that has carried over to this season. He is a pending free agent, which makes him available on a still floundering Royals team (it is almost like that World Series was cursed, but there are also rumours it never happened). However, I do not see the hype. This season he has taken a step forward with a 132 OPS+, up from his career average of a 109 OPS+. But this is mostly buoyed by a .370 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) and he has seemed to trade fly balls for groundballs. Beyond that he is generally good at avoiding strikeouts and drawing walks, while also playing average outfield defense. The Royals also have some interesting bullpen pieces to add to Benintendi, like Scott Barlow who avoids hard contact while getting his strikeouts too.
Overall, the cost to acquire Benintendi would not be as high as someone like Happ. But his success is also somewhat illusory and you may be overpaying for that. The resources that could be devoted to a popular name like Benintendi could likely be channeled better into another player. The Blue Jays will get an up-close look at Benintendi as they open up a series with the Royals. It could go some way to revealing the allure of his play this season or it could begin to reveal the smoke and mirrors of his BABIP luck. On the whole, I like the concept of the Blue Jays looking to acquire another pitcher-hitter combination, but the make-up of that package is still wide open in June.
(All data and images were found at Baseball Savant using their searchable pitch data)
